1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 18

Ethnikos Achna–Aris

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'ArisAndronikos Kakoullis
26'ArisAndronikos Kakoullis
82'ArisR. Effaghe

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 0.67 · Aris 2.12. On the pitch: 0-3.

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

5.00

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.7%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.67 for Ethnikos Achna, 2.12 for Aris.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (X2 — draw or Aris win).
These values were computed from 751 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win9.2%

Draw19.1%

Aris to win71.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–2

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time16.8%

Level at half-time42.3%

Aris lead at half-time40.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level59.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Aris ahead83.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 750 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 11
Aris: at least 14

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 4
Aris: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score0.67

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris score2.12

Attack: Aris score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.12 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–214.3%0–112.4%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.