1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 14

Olympiakos–AEL

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'OlympiakosR. Injgia · red card
79'OlympiakosStefanos Charalampous · red card

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos 1.49 · AEL 1.14. On the pitch: 0-0.

Referee

A. Konstantinidis→

5.00

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “AEL to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Olympiakos, 1.14 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 727 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos to win44.6%

Draw27.7%

AEL to win27.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–0

Olympiakos lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time43.3%

AEL lead at half-time27.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos ahead or level72.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or AEL ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 726 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos: at least 13
AEL: at least 14

Corners

Olympiakos: at least 4
AEL: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos score1.49

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.14

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–110.0%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.