1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 14

Apoel Nicosia–Krasava Ypsonas

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 14%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+1'Apoel NicosiaKonstantinos Laifis · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Apoel Nicosia		Krasava Ypsonas
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
494	Passes	314
430	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 2.44 · Krasava Ypsonas 0.53. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Apoel Nicosia 15 · Krasava Ypsonas 11; on target 6 and 3.
Apoel Nicosia kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

K. Fotiou→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.5%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for Apoel Nicosia, 0.53 for Krasava Ypsonas.
The highest double chance value is 94.8% (1X — Apoel Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 725 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win80.5%

Draw14.3%

Krasava Ypsonas to win5.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time47.8%

Level at half-time41.4%

Krasava Ypsonas lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Krasava Ypsonas ahead52.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 724 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 12Actual: 9
Krasava Ypsonas: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 5Actual: 5
Krasava Ypsonas: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score2.44

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Krasava Ypsonas concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.44 goals.

How many goals Krasava Ypsonas score0.53

Attack: Krasava Ypsonas score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.8%3–012.9%1–011.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.