1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 13

Omonia Aradippou–AEL

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.2% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AELL. Singh
18'AELL. Singh
39'Omonia AradippouG. Pontikos
72'AELN. Glavčić

Match statistics

Match statistics
Omonia Aradippou		AEL
6	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	1
1	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
416	Passes	334
343	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 1.19 · AEL 1.19. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Omonia Aradippou 6 · AEL 7; on target 4 and 5.
Omonia Aradippou kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Marios Christoforou, Cyprus→

4.38

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.2%: “AEL to win”. Second comes “Omonia Aradippou to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Omonia Aradippou, 1.19 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 70.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win34.9%

Draw29.9%

AEL to win35.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time46.9%

AEL lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or AEL ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 720 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 11Actual: 20
AEL: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 5Actual: 3
AEL: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score1.19

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEL score1.19

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.2%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.