1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 13

Enosis–Krasava Ypsonas

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Krasava YpsonasM. Koumouris

Match statistics

Match statistics
Enosis		Krasava Ypsonas
5	Shots	15
1	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
354	Passes	372
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Enosis 0.93 · Krasava Ypsonas 1.40. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Enosis 5 · Krasava Ypsonas 15; on target 1 and 6.

Referee

Menelaos Antoniou, Cyprus→

3.86

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Krasava Ypsonas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Enosis, 1.40 for Krasava Ypsonas.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (X2 — draw or Krasava Ypsonas win).
These values were computed from 718 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Enosis to win23.8%

Draw29.0%

Krasava Ypsonas to win47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Enosis lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time46.1%

Krasava Ypsonas lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Enosis ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Krasava Ypsonas ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 717 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Enosis: at least 12Actual: 11
Krasava Ypsonas: at least 14Actual: 14

Corners

Enosis: at least 4Actual: 3
Krasava Ypsonas: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Enosis score0.93

Attack: Enosis score below the league average (55% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Krasava Ypsonas concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Krasava Ypsonas score1.40

Attack: Krasava Ypsonas score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Enosis concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–112.9%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.