1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 13

Pafos–Akritas

4–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'PafosJ. Correia
42'PafosBruno
74'PafosAnderson Silva
79'PafosM. Bassouamina

Match statistics

Match statistics
Pafos		Akritas
13	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
482	Passes	270
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 2.12 · Akritas 0.54. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Pafos 13 · Akritas 7; on target 4 and 3.
Pafos kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Chrysovalantis Theouli, Cyprus→

4.00

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.1%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Pafos, 0.54 for Akritas.
The highest double chance value is 93.0% (1X — Pafos win or draw).
These values were computed from 717 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win75.1%

Draw17.9%

Akritas to win7.0%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 244 of 561 predictions were correct (43.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Pafos win or draw93.0%

12 — any result other than a draw82.1%

X2 — draw or Akritas win24.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (17.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Pafos lead at half-time66.1%

Level at half-time30.7%

Akritas lead at half-time3.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Pafos ahead or level96.8%

12 — not level at half-time69.3%

X2 — level or Akritas ahead33.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 716 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pafos: at least 14Actual: 12
Akritas: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Pafos: at least 5Actual: 5
Akritas: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 49.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score2.12

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Akritas's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Akritas score0.54

Attack: Akritas score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 40% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.4%1–014.3%3–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 717 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 38 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.