1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 12

Ethnikos Achna–Olympiakos

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'OlympiakosVieirinha

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ethnikos Achna 1.78 · Olympiakos 1.17. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

Chrysovalantis Theouli, Cyprus→

3.88

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Ethnikos Achna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Ethnikos Achna, 1.17 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (1X — Ethnikos Achna win or draw).
These values were computed from 710 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ethnikos Achna to win51.2%

Draw25.1%

Olympiakos to win23.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ethnikos Achna lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time39.8%

Olympiakos lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Ethnikos Achna ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 709 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ethnikos Achna: at least 12
Olympiakos: at least 12

Corners

Ethnikos Achna: at least 5
Olympiakos: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ethnikos Achna score1.78

Attack: Ethnikos Achna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score1.17

Attack: Olympiakos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ethnikos Achna concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.7%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.