1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 10

Anorthosis–Pafos

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'PafosDavid Luiz
82'AnorthosisKiko

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anorthosis		Pafos
7	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
289	Passes	385
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anorthosis 0.76 · Pafos 1.76. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Anorthosis 7 · Pafos 4; on target 3 and 2.
Pafos kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Marios Christoforou, Cyprus→

3.83

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.6%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.76 for Anorthosis, 1.76 for Pafos.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (X2 — draw or Pafos win).
These values were computed from 701 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anorthosis to win14.2%

Draw24.2%

Pafos to win61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Anorthosis lead at half-time10.4%

Level at half-time40.7%

Pafos lead at half-time48.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Anorthosis ahead or level51.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Pafos ahead89.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 700 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anorthosis: at least 10Actual: 11
Pafos: at least 15Actual: 22

Corners

Anorthosis: at least 3Actual: 5
Pafos: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anorthosis score0.76

Attack: Anorthosis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pafos score1.76

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.6%0–212.9%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.