1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 10

AEK Larnaca–Omonia Aradippou

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

71'AEK LarnacaHrvoje Miličević (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Larnaca 2.36 · Omonia Aradippou 0.37. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Nikolas Liotatis, Cyprus→

6.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.1%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for AEK Larnaca, 0.37 for Omonia Aradippou.
The highest double chance value is 96.5% (1X — AEK Larnaca win or draw).
These values were computed from 700 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Larnaca to win83.1%

Draw13.4%

Omonia Aradippou to win3.5%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time55.5%

Level at half-time37.5%

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time7.0%

First-half double chance

1X — AEK Larnaca ahead or level93.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Omonia Aradippou ahead44.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 699 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AEK Larnaca: at least 12
Omonia Aradippou: at least 13

Corners

AEK Larnaca: at least 5
Omonia Aradippou: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Larnaca score2.36

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.37

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.0%3–014.9%1–014.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.