La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Valencia–Athletic Club

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'Athletic ClubÁlex Berenguer (assist: Unai Gómez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valencia		Athletic Club
6	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
544	Passes	434
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valencia 1.08 · Athletic Club 1.30. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Valencia 6 · Athletic Club 10; on target 2 and 4.
Valencia kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Alejandro Muñiz→

4.63

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.6%: “Valencia to win”. Second comes “Athletic Club to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Valencia, 1.07 for Athletic Club.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,120 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valencia to win38.6%

Draw30.4%

Athletic Club to win31.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Valencia lead at half-time18.6%

Level at half-time45.9%

Athletic Club lead at half-time35.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Valencia ahead or level64.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Athletic Club ahead81.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1120 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valencia: at least 10Actual: 10
Athletic Club: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Valencia: at least 4Actual: 5
Athletic Club: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valencia score1.08

Attack: Valencia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Athletic Club concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Athletic Club score1.30

Attack: Athletic Club score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valencia's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.5%0–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.