1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 10

Akritas–Olympiakos

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'AkritasY. Castro
84'OlympiakosR. Injgia

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Akritas 1.04 · Olympiakos 1.26. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus→

4.83

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Olympiakos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Akritas, 1.26 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (X2 — draw or Olympiakos win).
These values were computed from 697 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Akritas to win29.1%

Draw30.1%

Olympiakos to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Akritas lead at half-time9.7%

Level at half-time38.1%

Olympiakos lead at half-time52.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Akritas ahead or level47.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead90.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 696 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Akritas: at least 12
Olympiakos: at least 13

Corners

Akritas: at least 3
Olympiakos: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Akritas score1.04

Attack: Akritas score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score1.26

Attack: Olympiakos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Akritas's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–111.8%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.