1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 9

Pafos–AEL

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'PafosV. Dragomir

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Pafos 2.65 · AEL 0.37. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Menelaos Antoniou, Cyprus→

4.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.8%: “Pafos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.65 for Pafos, 0.37 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 97.3% (1X — Pafos win or draw).
These values were computed from 694 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Pafos to win86.8%

Draw10.6%

AEL to win2.7%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 1–0

Pafos lead at half-time53.4%

Level at half-time39.1%

AEL lead at half-time7.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Pafos ahead or level92.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or AEL ahead46.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 693 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Pafos: at least 13
AEL: at least 12

Corners

Pafos: at least 6
AEL: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Pafos score2.65

Attack: Pafos score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.65 goals.

How many goals AEL score0.37

Attack: AEL score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pafos concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.8%3–015.9%1–012.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.