1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 8

Olympiakos–Apollon Limassol

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'OlympiakosJoão Mário
77'Apollon LimassolA. Vrikkis
90'Apollon LimassolGaetan Weissbeck
90'OlympiakosMauricio

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos 1.08 · Apollon Limassol 1.19. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus→

5.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “Olympiakos to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Olympiakos, 1.19 for Apollon Limassol.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 683 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos to win31.9%

Draw30.6%

Apollon Limassol to win37.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Olympiakos lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time46.9%

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Olympiakos ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Apollon Limassol ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 682 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Olympiakos: at least 11
Apollon Limassol: at least 13

Corners

Olympiakos: at least 3
Apollon Limassol: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos score1.08

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.19

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–111.4%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.