1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 7

Aris–AEL

4–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'ArisV. Nikolić
56'ArisMihlali Mayambela
62'ArisJaden Montnor
85'ArisV. Nikolić

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aris 2.67 · AEL 0.43. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

Marios Christoforou, Cyprus→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 85.8%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.67 for Aris, 0.43 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 96.9% (1X — Aris win or draw).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aris to win85.8%

Draw11.1%

AEL to win3.1%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

First half

Actual: 0–0

Aris lead at half-time57.2%

Level at half-time35.5%

AEL lead at half-time7.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aris ahead or level92.7%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or AEL ahead42.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aris: at least 13
AEL: at least 12

Corners

Aris: at least 4
AEL: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aris score2.67

Attack: Aris score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.67 goals.

How many goals AEL score0.43

Attack: AEL score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–016.7%3–015.1%1–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.