1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 7

Apoel Nicosia–Olympiakos

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 16%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'OlympiakosI. Pikis
18'OlympiakosJ. Tavares
90'Apoel NicosiaGeovane Meurer
90'Apoel NicosiaP. Sotiriou

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apoel Nicosia 2.23 · Olympiakos 0.46. On the pitch: 2-2.

Referee

Antonis Konstantinidis, Cyprus→

3.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.1%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.23 for Apoel Nicosia, 0.46 for Olympiakos.
The highest double chance value is 94.8% (1X — Apoel Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 680 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apoel Nicosia to win79.1%

Draw15.8%

Olympiakos to win5.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–2

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time42.5%

Olympiakos lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Apoel Nicosia ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or Olympiakos ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 679 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apoel Nicosia: at least 13
Olympiakos: at least 13

Corners

Apoel Nicosia: at least 6
Olympiakos: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score2.23

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Olympiakos score0.46

Attack: Olympiakos score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.7%1–014.7%3–013.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.