1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 7

Anorthosis–Akritas

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'AnorthosisGabriel Furtado
40'AkritasJ. Romo
83'AnorthosisClifford Aboagye
88'AkritasG. Chatzivasilis

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anorthosis		Akritas
13	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
490	Passes	304
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anorthosis 1.43 · Akritas 0.83. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Anorthosis 13 · Akritas 11; on target 7 and 5.
Anorthosis kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Chrysovalantis Theouli, Cyprus→

4.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Anorthosis to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Anorthosis, 0.83 for Akritas.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Anorthosis win or draw).
These values were computed from 676 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anorthosis to win50.9%

Draw28.7%

Akritas to win20.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Anorthosis lead at half-time48.1%

Level at half-time41.3%

Akritas lead at half-time10.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Anorthosis ahead or level89.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Akritas ahead51.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 675 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anorthosis: at least 14Actual: 12
Akritas: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Anorthosis: at least 4Actual: 4
Akritas: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anorthosis score1.43

Attack: Anorthosis score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Akritas's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Akritas score0.83

Attack: Akritas score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.3%1–114.2%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.