1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 7

Apollon Limassol–Omonia Aradippou

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'Apollon LimassolPedro Marques (penalty)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Apollon Limassol 1.72 · Omonia Aradippou 0.65. On the pitch: 1-0.

Referee

Nikolas Liotatis, Cyprus→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.6%: “Apollon Limassol to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Apollon Limassol, 0.65 for Omonia Aradippou.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — Apollon Limassol win or draw).
These values were computed from 676 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Apollon Limassol to win63.6%

Draw24.1%

Omonia Aradippou to win12.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–0

Apollon Limassol lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time47.0%

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Apollon Limassol ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.0%

X2 — level or Omonia Aradippou ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 675 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Apollon Limassol: at least 12
Omonia Aradippou: at least 12

Corners

Apollon Limassol: at least 4
Omonia Aradippou: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Apollon Limassol score1.72

Attack: Apollon Limassol score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.65

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apollon Limassol concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.7%2–014.4%1–111.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.