1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 6

Omonia Aradippou–Apoel Nicosia

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 October 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'Apoel NicosiaP. Sotiriou (penalty)
61'Apoel NicosiaS. Dražić
70'Apoel NicosiaGeovane Meurer
90'Apoel NicosiaS. Dražić

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 0.69 · Apoel Nicosia 1.69. On the pitch: 0-4.

Referee

Panagiotis Chatzigeorgiou, Cyprus→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.8%: “Apoel Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.69 for Omonia Aradippou, 1.69 for Apoel Nicosia.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (X2 — draw or Apoel Nicosia win).
These values were computed from 668 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win13.5%

Draw24.7%

Apoel Nicosia to win61.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 0–1

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time16.3%

Level at half-time45.4%

Apoel Nicosia lead at half-time38.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level61.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Apoel Nicosia ahead83.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 667 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 13
Apoel Nicosia: at least 13

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 4
Apoel Nicosia: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.69

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Apoel Nicosia concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Apoel Nicosia score1.69

Attack: Apoel Nicosia score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.1%0–213.7%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.