1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 4

Omonia Nicosia–AEL

5–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 22 September 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Omonia NicosiaSenou Coulibaly
51'Omonia NicosiaW. Semedo
76'Omonia NicosiaE. Andreou
78'Omonia NicosiaI. Kousoulos
84'Omonia NicosiaAngelos Neophytou

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia 2.49 · AEL 0.56. On the pitch: 5-0.

Referee

Constantinos Fellas, Cyprus→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.7%: “Omonia Nicosia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.49 for Omonia Nicosia, 0.56 for AEL.
The highest double chance value is 94.7% (1X — Omonia Nicosia win or draw).
These values were computed from 658 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Nicosia to win80.7%

Draw14.1%

AEL to win5.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 481 of 572 predictions were correct (84.1%). Accuracy record →

First half

Actual: 1–0

Omonia Nicosia lead at half-time54.8%

Level at half-time36.8%

AEL lead at half-time8.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Nicosia ahead or level91.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or AEL ahead45.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 657 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Nicosia: at least 11
AEL: at least 13

Corners

Omonia Nicosia: at least 5
AEL: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Nicosia score2.49

Attack: Omonia Nicosia score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: AEL concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.49 goals.

How many goals AEL score0.56

Attack: AEL score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Omonia Nicosia concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.2%3–012.7%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.