1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 3

Anorthosis–AEK Larnaca

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'AEK LarnacaHrvoje Miličević (penalty)
69'AnorthosisElián Sosa

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anorthosis 0.90 · AEK Larnaca 1.45. On the pitch: 1-1.

Referee

Panagiotis Chatzigeorgiou, Cyprus→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.5%: “AEK Larnaca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Anorthosis, 1.45 for AEK Larnaca.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (X2 — draw or AEK Larnaca win).
These values were computed from 646 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anorthosis to win22.0%

Draw28.5%

AEK Larnaca to win49.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anorthosis win or draw50.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or AEK Larnaca win78.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Anorthosis lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

AEK Larnaca lead at half-time39.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Anorthosis ahead or level61.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or AEK Larnaca ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anorthosis: at least 13
AEK Larnaca: at least 13

Corners

Anorthosis: at least 3
AEK Larnaca: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anorthosis score0.90

Attack: Anorthosis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AEK Larnaca concede 39% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AEK Larnaca score1.45

Attack: AEK Larnaca score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Anorthosis's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%0–113.1%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.