1. Division · Cyprus · Regular Season - 2

Omonia Aradippou–Aris

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'ArisE. Semedo

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Omonia Aradippou 0.79 · Aris 1.90. On the pitch: 0-1.

Referee

Andreas Tehrany, Cyprus→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.9%: “Aris to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.79 for Omonia Aradippou, 1.90 for Aris.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (X2 — draw or Aris win).
These values were computed from 640 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Omonia Aradippou to win13.5%

Draw22.6%

Aris to win63.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou win or draw36.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Aris win86.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Omonia Aradippou lead at half-time13.4%

Level at half-time38.3%

Aris lead at half-time48.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Omonia Aradippou ahead or level51.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Aris ahead86.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 639 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Omonia Aradippou: at least 10
Aris: at least 14

Corners

Omonia Aradippou: at least 5
Aris: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,680 of 4,992 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Omonia Aradippou score0.79

Attack: Omonia Aradippou score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aris concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aris score1.90

Attack: Aris score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Omonia Aradippou concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.90 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–212.6%0–112.2%1–111.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.