Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 32

Aarhus–Viborg

6–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'AarhusF. Emmery (assist: K. Arnstad)
27'AarhusP. Mortensen (assist: F. Emmery)
34'ViborgT. Jørgensen
35'AarhusG. Links (assist: F. Emmery)
70'AarhusS. Jorgensen (assist: Eric Kahl)
86'AarhusT. Kristjansson (assist: T. Bech)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		Viborg
16	Shots	23
9	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	16
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
597	Passes	323
522	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 1.84 · Viborg 1.07. On the pitch: 6-2.
Shots Aarhus 16 · Viborg 23; on target 9 and 9.
Aarhus kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Putros→

4.15

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.4%: “Aarhus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Aarhus, 1.07 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (1X — Aarhus win or draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win55.4%

Draw24.3%

Viborg to win20.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

90'ViborgLukas Kirkegaard

90'AarhusT. Kristjansson (assist: J. Andersen)

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aarhus win or draw79.7%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Viborg win44.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Aarhus lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time39.0%

Viborg lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aarhus ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aarhus: at least 11Actual: 11
Viborg: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

Aarhus: at least 5Actual: 2
Viborg: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score1.84

Attack: Aarhus score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score1.07

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 645 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 107 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.