Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 32

FC Midtjylland–Brondby

2–3

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'FC MidtjyllandValdemar Byskov
23'FC MidtjyllandM. Gogorza (assist: Valdemar Byskov)
66'BrondbyM. Lahdo (assist: B. Slisz)
81'BrondbyS. Fukuda (assist: M. Lahdo)
90'BrondbyL. Binks (assist: F. Bundgaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Brondby
18	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	5
15	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
459	Passes	372
386	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 1.57 · Brondby 1.26. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots FC Midtjylland 18 · Brondby 12; on target 8 and 5.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Tykgaard→

3.25

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.8%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “Brondby to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for FC Midtjylland, 1.26 for Brondby.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win43.8%

Draw26.8%

Brondby to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time36.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Brondby lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Brondby ahead63.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Midtjylland: at least 11Actual: 21
Brondby: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

FC Midtjylland: at least 5Actual: 5
Brondby: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.57

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brondby score1.26

Attack: Brondby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.1%1–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.