Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 32

FC Fredericia–Silkeborg

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Monjasa Park, Fredericia

Goals and red cards

26'FC FredericiaSvenn Crone (assist: Jakob Jessen)
33'FC FredericiaJakob Jessen (assist: A. Pyndt)
41'FC FredericiaJ. Lindekilde (assist: D. F. Kristjansson)
74'FC FredericiaS. Johannesen (assist: J. Lindekilde)
79'SilkeborgW. Kirk (assist: J. Gammelby)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Fredericia		Silkeborg
27	Shots	9
11	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
700	Passes	454
635	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Fredericia 1.72 · Silkeborg 1.36. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots FC Fredericia 27 · Silkeborg 9; on target 11 and 3.
FC Fredericia kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

F. Svendsen→

3.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “FC Fredericia to win”. Second comes “Silkeborg to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for FC Fredericia, 1.36 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Fredericia to win45.5%

Draw25.4%

Silkeborg to win29.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

FC Fredericia lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time37.0%

Silkeborg lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Fredericia ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Fredericia: at least 10Actual: 6
Silkeborg: at least 7Actual: 3

Corners

FC Fredericia: at least 5Actual: 4
Silkeborg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.72

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.36

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.