Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 31

Randers FC–Odense

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

Goals and red cards

8'OdenseJ. Arp
29'OdenseV. Myhra · red card
66'Randers FCN. Dyhr (assist: J. Bjorkengren)
67'Randers FCT. Klidje (assist: E. Mahmoud)
74'OdenseL. Owusu (assist: J. Arp)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Odense
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	5
16	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
6	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
530	Passes	377
455	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.68 · Odense 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Randers FC 19 · Odense 8; on target 6 and 5.
Randers FC kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

J. Sundberg→

4.31

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “Odense to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Randers FC, 1.29 for Odense.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 645 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win46.0%

Draw25.9%

Odense to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Randers FC win or draw71.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Odense win54.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Randers FC lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time36.7%

Odense lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or Odense ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 645 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 9
Odense: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 8
Odense: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,357 of 4,139 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.68

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Odense's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Odense score1.29

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.3%1–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 645 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 66 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.