Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 31

FC Nordsjaelland–FC Midtjylland

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.5% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		FC Midtjylland
20	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
9	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
69%	Possession	31%
635	Passes	276
540	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.50 · FC Midtjylland 1.56. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 20 · FC Midtjylland 12; on target 9 and 2.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

J. Karlsen→

3.25

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.2%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “FC Nordsjaelland to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.56 for FC Midtjylland.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 643 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win35.8%

Draw26.0%

FC Midtjylland to win38.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time40.3%

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time35.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level64.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or FC Midtjylland ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 643 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 11Actual: 13
FC Midtjylland: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 4Actual: 9
FC Midtjylland: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.50

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Midtjylland score1.56

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.