Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 31

Viborg–Sonderjyske

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 8 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Viborg Stadion, Vyborg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'SonderjyskeSefer Emini (assist: Olti Hyseni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viborg		Sonderjyske
18	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	0
1	Offsides	4
68%	Possession	32%
628	Passes	302
541	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viborg 1.82 · Sonderjyske 1.25. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Viborg 18 · Sonderjyske 5; on target 4 and 3.
Viborg kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

A. Uslu→

3.43

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.6%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “Sonderjyske to win” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Viborg, 1.25 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 642 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viborg to win50.6%

Draw24.7%

Sonderjyske to win24.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Viborg win or draw75.3%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or Sonderjyske win49.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Viborg lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time38.7%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time18.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Viborg ahead or level81.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 642 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viborg: at least 10Actual: 6
Sonderjyske: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Viborg: at least 5
Sonderjyske: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viborg score1.82

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.25

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.6%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 642 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 52 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.