Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 29

Sonderjyske–Brondby

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haderslev Fodbold Stadion, Hadeslev

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'SonderjyskeM. Hoppe
11'SonderjyskeOlti Hyseni
65'SonderjyskeSefer Emini (assist: Olti Hyseni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sonderjyske		Brondby
14	Shots	22
8	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
388	Passes	463
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sonderjyske 1.24 · Brondby 1.64. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Sonderjyske 14 · Brondby 22; on target 8 and 3.
Brondby kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

L. Graagaard→

2.46

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.1%: “Brondby to win”. Second comes “Sonderjyske to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Sonderjyske, 1.64 for Brondby.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 636 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sonderjyske to win27.6%

Draw26.3%

Brondby to win46.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sonderjyske lead at half-time17.1%

Level at half-time42.0%

Brondby lead at half-time40.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Sonderjyske ahead or level59.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Brondby ahead82.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 636 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sonderjyske: at least 11Actual: 14
Brondby: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sonderjyske: at least 4Actual: 4
Brondby: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.24

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brondby score1.64

Attack: Brondby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.3%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.