Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 27

Silkeborg–FC Fredericia

2–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jysk Park, Silkeborg

Goals and red cards

23'SilkeborgC. McCowatt (assist: A. Wikman)
29'SilkeborgT. Adamsen (assist: W. Kirk)
78'FC FredericiaJ. Lindekilde (assist: S. Johannesen)
90'FC FredericiaJ. Lindekilde (assist: Emilio Simonsen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Silkeborg		FC Fredericia
12	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	5
51%	Possession	49%
526	Passes	503
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Silkeborg 1.65 · FC Fredericia 1.48. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Silkeborg 12 · FC Fredericia 15; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

J. Maae→

4.00

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.0%: “Silkeborg to win”. Second comes “FC Fredericia to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Silkeborg, 1.48 for FC Fredericia.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 631 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Silkeborg to win41.0%

Draw25.6%

FC Fredericia to win33.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Silkeborg win or draw66.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.4%

X2 — draw or FC Fredericia win59.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Silkeborg lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time35.9%

FC Fredericia lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Silkeborg ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time64.1%

X2 — level or FC Fredericia ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 631 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Silkeborg: at least 7Actual: 6
FC Fredericia: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Silkeborg: at least 5Actual: 5
FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,728 of 2,752 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Silkeborg score1.65

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.48

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 631 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.