Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 26

FC Fredericia–Vejle

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Monjasa Park, Fredericia

Goals and red cards

24'FC FredericiaF. Winther
48'VejleC. Gammelgaard (assist: T. Gundelund)
52'VejleM. Duelund (assist: A. Hjulsager)
58'FC FredericiaF. Etim (assist: G. Marcussen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Fredericia		Vejle
18	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
367	Passes	435
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Fredericia 1.72 · Vejle 1.43. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Fredericia 18 · Vejle 12; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

J. Hansen→

3.63

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “FC Fredericia to win”. Second comes “Vejle to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for FC Fredericia, 1.43 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 74.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 630 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Fredericia to win43.9%

Draw25.3%

Vejle to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 816 of 1,253 predictions were correct (65.1%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Fredericia win or draw69.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Vejle win56.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Fredericia lead at half-time59.6%

Level at half-time31.5%

Vejle lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Fredericia ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time68.5%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead40.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 630 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Fredericia: at least 9Actual: 10
Vejle: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 9
Vejle: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,830 of 2,908 predictions were correct (62.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.72

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.43

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–19.9%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 630 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.