Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 25

FC Nordsjaelland–Brondby

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'BrondbyJ. Ambaek (assist: Nicolai Vallys)
59'FC NordsjaellandA. Lind (assist: P. Amoako)
88'FC NordsjaellandIbrahim Adel (assist: L. Nene)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Brondby
13	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
537	Passes	454
458	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.48 · Brondby 1.37. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 13 · Brondby 8; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

L. Graagaard→

2.44

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.0%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “Brondby to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.37 for Brondby.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 626 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win39.0%

Draw27.0%

Brondby to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time26.6%

Level at half-time42.3%

Brondby lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Brondby ahead73.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 626 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 10Actual: 11
Brondby: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 4Actual: 5
Brondby: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.48

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Brondby concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Brondby score1.37

Attack: Brondby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.