Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 25

Vejle–Randers FC

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 6 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vejle Stadion, Vejle

Goals and red cards

10'Randers FCE. Mahmoud
90'VejleM. Duelund (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vejle		Randers FC
7	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
506	Passes	356
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vejle 1.24 · Randers FC 1.61. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Vejle 7 · Randers FC 13; on target 3 and 6.
Vejle kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Putros→

4.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “Vejle to win” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Vejle, 1.61 for Randers FC.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 625 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vejle to win28.2%

Draw26.5%

Randers FC to win45.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,196 of 4,685 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Vejle win or draw54.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Randers FC win71.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Vejle lead at half-time18.1%

Level at half-time37.9%

Randers FC lead at half-time43.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Vejle ahead or level56.1%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Randers FC ahead81.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 625 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vejle: at least 11Actual: 13
Randers FC: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Vejle: at least 4Actual: 3
Randers FC: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vejle score1.24

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Randers FC score1.61

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.2%0–18.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.