Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 25

FC Copenhagen–Silkeborg

7–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

6'FC CopenhagenYoussoufa Moukoko (assist: M. Elyounoussi)
12'FC CopenhagenRobert (assist: J. Larsson)
17'FC CopenhagenW. Clem (assist: J. Larsson)
25'FC CopenhagenYoussoufa Moukoko (assist: M. Jørgensen)
51'FC CopenhagenYoussoufa Moukoko (assist: M. Madsen)
62'FC CopenhagenRobert (assist: M. Elyounoussi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Silkeborg
28	Shots	4
13	Shots on target	1
19	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
576	Passes	453
504	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.26 · Silkeborg 0.91. On the pitch: 7-0.
Shots FC Copenhagen 28 · Silkeborg 4; on target 13 and 1.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Funder→

3.00

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.26 for FC Copenhagen, 0.91 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 625 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win68.3%

Draw19.4%

Silkeborg to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

J. Larsson (assist: W. Clem)

8	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw87.7%

12 — any result other than a draw80.6%

X2 — draw or Silkeborg win31.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.4%).

First half

Actual: 4–0

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time44.9%

Level at half-time37.5%

Silkeborg lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead55.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 625 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 11Actual: 8
Silkeborg: at least 8Actual: 3

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 5Actual: 11
Silkeborg: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.26

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score0.91

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.9%2–110.8%1–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 625 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.