Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 25

FC Midtjylland–Sonderjyske

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: MCH Arena, Herning

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'FC MidtjyllandAral Şimşir (assist: Cho Gue-Sung)
58'FC MidtjyllandD. Osorio (assist: Aral Şimşir)
83'SonderjyskeMohamed Cherif Haidara (assist: T. Klysner)
89'SonderjyskeOlti Hyseni (assist: Sefer Emini)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Midtjylland		Sonderjyske
18	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
372	Passes	299
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Midtjylland 2.01 · Sonderjyske 1.10. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Midtjylland 18 · Sonderjyske 7; on target 4 and 4.
FC Midtjylland kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

J. Maae→

3.97

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “FC Midtjylland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for FC Midtjylland, 1.10 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 81.3% (1X — FC Midtjylland win or draw).
These values were computed from 624 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Midtjylland to win58.5%

Draw22.8%

Sonderjyske to win18.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Midtjylland lead at half-time52.4%

Level at half-time36.3%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time11.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Midtjylland ahead or level88.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead47.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 624 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Midtjylland: at least 10Actual: 15
Sonderjyske: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

FC Midtjylland: at least 6Actual: 9
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Midtjylland score2.01

Attack: FC Midtjylland score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.10

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Midtjylland concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.