Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 24

FC Copenhagen–FC Fredericia

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

23'FC FredericiaS. Johannesen (assist: F. Etim)
38'FC FredericiaF. Etim (assist: F. Winther)
90'FC CopenhagenYoussoufa Moukoko (penalty)
90+5'FC FredericiaSvenn Crone · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		FC Fredericia
33	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	3
22	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	10
14	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
67%	Possession	33%
598	Passes	296
496	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.41 · FC Fredericia 0.99. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Copenhagen 33 · FC Fredericia 8; on target 11 and 3.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

F. Svendsen→

2.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.3%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for FC Copenhagen, 0.99 for FC Fredericia.
The highest double chance value is 87.7% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 622 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win69.3%

Draw18.4%

FC Fredericia to win12.3%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,040 of 1,528 predictions were correct (68.1%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time36.7%

FC Fredericia lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.3%

X2 — level or FC Fredericia ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 622 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 10Actual: 12
FC Fredericia: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 6Actual: 14
FC Fredericia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.41

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Fredericia score0.99

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–09.8%1–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.