Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 24

Randers FC–Silkeborg

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

Goals and red cards

28'SilkeborgT. Adamsen (assist: S. Berger)
33'SilkeborgC. McCowatt (assist: T. Adamsen)
74'SilkeborgA. Poulsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Silkeborg
13	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
618	Passes	440
524	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.85 · Silkeborg 1.05. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Randers FC 13 · Silkeborg 12; on target 3 and 4.
Randers FC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Redder→

4.05

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Randers FC, 1.05 for Silkeborg.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — Randers FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win56.1%

Draw24.2%

Silkeborg to win19.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Randers FC lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time37.3%

Silkeborg lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Silkeborg ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 621 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 12
Silkeborg: at least 8Actual: 12

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 4
Silkeborg: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.85

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Silkeborg concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Silkeborg score1.05

Attack: Silkeborg score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.9%2–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.