Superliga · Denmark · Championship Group - 24

FC Nordsjaelland–Sonderjyske

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'FC NordsjaellandIbrahim Adel (assist: R. Norheim)
72'FC NordsjaellandL. Sadio (assist: L. Nene)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Sonderjyske
17	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
583	Passes	435
515	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.81 · Sonderjyske 1.30. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 17 · Sonderjyske 14; on target 6 and 5.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Uslu→

3.41

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “Sonderjyske to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.30 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 621 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win48.8%

Draw24.8%

Sonderjyske to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time41.8%

Level at half-time38.9%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead58.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 621 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 9Actual: 11
Sonderjyske: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 5Actual: 6
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.81

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.30

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.5%1–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.