La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Valladolid–Girona

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 13 May 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

80'GironaC. Stuani (assist: David López)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Valladolid		Girona
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
428	Passes	483
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Valladolid 1.12 · Girona 1.64. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Valladolid 11 · Girona 13; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

Alejandro Quintero→

4.95

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “Girona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Valladolid, 1.84 for Girona.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (X2 — draw or Girona win).
These values were computed from 1,110 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Valladolid to win19.5%

Draw24.3%

Girona to win56.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Valladolid win or draw43.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Girona win80.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Valladolid lead at half-time17.7%

Level at half-time41.9%

Girona lead at half-time40.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Valladolid ahead or level59.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Girona ahead82.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1110 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Valladolid: at least 11Actual: 5
Girona: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 6
Girona: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 47.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Valladolid score1.12

Attack: Valladolid score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Girona's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Girona score1.64

Attack: Girona score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.9%0–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1110 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 73 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.