Superliga · Denmark · Relegation Group - 23

FC Fredericia–Randers FC

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 13 March 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Monjasa Park, Fredericia

Goals and red cards

9'Randers FCM. Greve (assist: E. Mahmoud)
12'Randers FCW. Caddy
79'Randers FCE. Mahmoud (assist: Laurits Pedersen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Fredericia		Randers FC
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
527	Passes	410
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Fredericia 1.37 · Randers FC 1.71. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots FC Fredericia 10 · Randers FC 12; on target 3 and 3.
FC Fredericia kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

L. Graagaard→

2.42

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “FC Fredericia to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for FC Fredericia, 1.71 for Randers FC.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 618 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Fredericia to win29.6%

Draw25.5%

Randers FC to win45.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Fredericia win or draw55.0%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Randers FC win70.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

FC Fredericia lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time37.1%

Randers FC lead at half-time26.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Fredericia ahead or level73.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or Randers FC ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 618 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Fredericia: at least 9Actual: 11
Randers FC: at least 9Actual: 19

Corners

FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 3
Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.37

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Randers FC score1.71

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.1%2–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 618 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 22 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.