Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 22

Sonderjyske–Odense

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Haderslev Fodbold Stadion, Hadeslev

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'SonderjyskeM. Hoppe (assist: D. L. Gretarsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sonderjyske		Odense
15	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	8
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
346	Passes	568
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sonderjyske 1.79 · Odense 1.55. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sonderjyske 15 · Odense 13; on target 3 and 2.
Odense kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

F. Svendsen→

3.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Sonderjyske to win”. Second comes “Odense to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Sonderjyske, 1.55 for Odense.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sonderjyske to win42.8%

Draw24.6%

Odense to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sonderjyske lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time37.0%

Odense lead at half-time24.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sonderjyske ahead or level75.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Odense ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sonderjyske: at least 10Actual: 12
Odense: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Sonderjyske: at least 4Actual: 6
Odense: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.79

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Odense's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Odense score1.55

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–19.6%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.