Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 22

Vejle–Aarhus

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vejle Stadion, Vejle

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'AarhusRasmus Carstensen
61'VejleS. Velkov (assist: C. Gammelgaard)
71'AarhusRasmus Carstensen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vejle		Aarhus
11	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
42%	Possession	58%
305	Passes	408
183	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vejle 1.12 · Aarhus 2.08. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Vejle 11 · Aarhus 8; on target 5 and 6.
Aarhus kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Redder→

4.09

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.5%: “Aarhus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Vejle, 2.08 for Aarhus.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (X2 — draw or Aarhus win).
These values were computed from 612 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vejle to win18.3%

Draw22.2%

Aarhus to win59.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vejle lead at half-time9.1%

Level at half-time31.9%

Aarhus lead at half-time59.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Vejle ahead or level41.0%

12 — not level at half-time68.1%

X2 — level or Aarhus ahead90.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 612 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vejle: at least 12Actual: 18
Aarhus: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

Vejle: at least 4Actual: 2
Aarhus: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vejle score1.12

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aarhus score2.08

Attack: Aarhus score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Vejle concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%1–110.7%0–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.