Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 21

Randers FC–FC Fredericia

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'FC FredericiaS. Johannesen (assist: J. Lindekilde)
31'Randers FCJ. Bjorkengren (assist: E. Mahmoud)
64'FC FredericiaF. Winther (assist: Jakob Jessen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		FC Fredericia
27	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
18	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
14	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
525	Passes	377
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 2.02 · FC Fredericia 1.07. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Randers FC 27 · FC Fredericia 17; on target 6 and 6.
Randers FC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

J. Kehlet→

3.65

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Randers FC, 1.07 for FC Fredericia.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Randers FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 608 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win59.4%

Draw22.6%

FC Fredericia to win18.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,655 of 2,780 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Randers FC lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time37.1%

FC Fredericia lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or FC Fredericia ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 608 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 6
FC Fredericia: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Randers FC: at least 6Actual: 14
FC Fredericia: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score2.02

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.07

Attack: FC Fredericia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.