Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 21

FC Nordsjaelland–Vejle

3–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'FC NordsjaellandN. Rojkjaer (assist: J. Janssen)
45+5'FC NordsjaellandJ. Janssen · red card
49'FC NordsjaellandR. Norheim (assist: A. Lind)
63'FC NordsjaellandA. Lind (assist: N. Rojkjaer)
65'VejleM. Duelund (assist: C. Gammelgaard)
73'Vejle

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Vejle
11	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
718	Passes	372
656	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 2.19 · Vejle 1.03. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 11 · Vejle 16; on target 7 and 6.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

M. Tykgaard→

3.45

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.1%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.03 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 84.8% (1X — FC Nordsjaelland win or draw).
These values were computed from 606 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win64.1%

Draw20.7%

Vejle to win15.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

M. Duelund (assist: C. Gammelgaard)

89'VejleB. Edjeodji (assist: T. Bach)

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,219 of 3,682 predictions were correct (60.3%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland win or draw84.8%

12 — any result other than a draw79.3%

X2 — draw or Vejle win35.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time70.0%

Level at half-time25.4%

Vejle lead at half-time4.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level95.4%

12 — not level at half-time74.6%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead30.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 606 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 8Actual: 7
Vejle: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 5Actual: 5
Vejle: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,731 of 2,756 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score2.19

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.03

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.0%2–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 606 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.