Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 18

FC Fredericia–Odense

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Monjasa Park, Fredericia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'OdenseJ. Arp (penalty)
16'FC FredericiaO. Buch (assist: D. F. Kristjansson)
43'OdenseN. Ganaus (assist: Max Ejdum)
63'OdenseA. Nygaard (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Fredericia		Odense
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
507	Passes	545
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Fredericia 1.48 · Odense 1.86. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FC Fredericia 10 · Odense 12; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

J. Maae→

4.16

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.2%: “Odense to win”. Second comes “FC Fredericia to win” at 29.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for FC Fredericia, 1.86 for Odense.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 588 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Fredericia to win29.6%

Draw24.3%

Odense to win46.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,393 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 764 of 1,176 predictions were correct (65.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Fredericia win or draw53.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Odense win70.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC Fredericia lead at half-time32.6%

Level at half-time37.8%

Odense lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Fredericia ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Odense ahead67.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 588 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Fredericia: at least 9Actual: 9
Odense: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

FC Fredericia: at least 4Actual: 7
Odense: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals66.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Fredericia score1.48

Attack: FC Fredericia score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Odense's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Odense score1.86

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Fredericia concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–210.0%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 588 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 17 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.