Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 16

Viborg–Vejle

5–2

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Viborg Stadion, Vyborg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'VejleA. Jacobsen (assist: C. Sørensen)
17'ViborgCharly Nouck (assist: T. Jørgensen)
24'ViborgL. Flo (own goal)
40'ViborgT. Freriks (penalty)
42'ViborgCharly Nouck (assist: T. Freriks)
63'VejleC. Gammelgaard

Match statistics

Match statistics
Viborg		Vejle
10	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
497	Passes	387
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Viborg 1.78 · Vejle 1.16. On the pitch: 5-2.
Shots Viborg 10 · Vejle 11; on target 6 and 2.
Viborg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Funder→

3.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Viborg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Viborg, 1.16 for Vejle.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — Viborg win or draw).
These values were computed from 578 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Viborg to win51.6%

Draw25.1%

Vejle to win23.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

(assist: M. Enggaard)

90'ViborgM. Sondergaard (assist: B. Brahimi)

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Viborg win or draw76.6%

12 — any result other than a draw74.9%

X2 — draw or Vejle win48.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.1%).

First half

Actual: 4–1

Viborg lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time34.6%

Vejle lead at half-time14.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Viborg ahead or level85.9%

12 — not level at half-time65.4%

X2 — level or Vejle ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 578 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Viborg: at least 8Actual: 8
Vejle: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Viborg: at least 5Actual: 5
Vejle: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,136 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Viborg score1.78

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vejle's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vejle score1.16

Attack: Vejle score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 578 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 59 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.