La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 35

Atletico Madrid–Real Sociedad

4–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: P. Barrios)
10'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: Samuel Lino)
11'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth
30'Atletico MadridA. Sorloth (assist: Javi Galán)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Atletico Madrid		Real Sociedad
13	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
662	Passes	415
605	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Atletico Madrid 1.59 · Real Sociedad 0.81. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Atletico Madrid 13 · Real Sociedad 6; on target 7 and 1.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

José Sánchez→

4.78

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Atletico Madrid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Atletico Madrid, 0.87 for Real Sociedad.
The highest double chance value is 80.9% (1X — Atletico Madrid win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Atletico Madrid to win54.1%

Draw26.8%

Real Sociedad to win19.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time39.0%

Level at half-time45.2%

Real Sociedad lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Atletico Madrid ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Real Sociedad ahead61.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Atletico Madrid: at least 10Actual: 7
Real Sociedad: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Atletico Madrid: at least 4Actual: 3
Real Sociedad: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.59

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Sociedad score0.81

Attack: Real Sociedad score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–012.9%2–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.