Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 15

Aarhus–Sonderjyske

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'SonderjyskeM. Hoppe
27'AarhusP. Mortensen (assist: G. Links)
44'AarhusK. Arnstad (assist: N. Poulsen)
59'SonderjyskeK. M. Ingason (assist: M. Agger)
80'SonderjyskeMohamed Cherif Haidara (assist: Olti Hyseni)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aarhus		Sonderjyske
21	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
64%	Possession	36%
574	Passes	316
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aarhus 2.20 · Sonderjyske 1.08. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Aarhus 21 · Sonderjyske 10; on target 8 and 6.
Aarhus kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Uslu→

3.39

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “Aarhus to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Aarhus, 1.08 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — Aarhus win or draw).
These values were computed from 574 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aarhus to win63.2%

Draw20.8%

Sonderjyske to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,247 of 1,995 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Aarhus lead at half-time55.2%

Level at half-time33.8%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time11.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Aarhus ahead or level88.9%

12 — not level at half-time66.2%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead44.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 574 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aarhus: at least 9Actual: 6
Sonderjyske: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Aarhus: at least 6Actual: 6
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aarhus score2.20

Attack: Aarhus score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.08

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aarhus concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–19.9%2–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.