Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 14

FC Nordsjaelland–Odense

2–4

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 November 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Right to Dream Park, Farum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'FC NordsjaellandN. Rojkjaer
49'OdenseJ. Grot (assist: Max Ejdum)
53'OdenseL. Owusu (assist: J. Grot)
64'FC NordsjaellandP. Amoako (assist: J. Lahteenmaki)
78'OdenseJ. Grot (assist: Max Ejdum)
89'OdenseJ. Grot (assist: R. Falk)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Nordsjaelland		Odense
17	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	7
13	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	0
2	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
736	Passes	462
677	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Nordsjaelland 1.99 · Odense 1.34. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots FC Nordsjaelland 17 · Odense 11; on target 7 and 7.
FC Nordsjaelland kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

J. Hansen→

3.61

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “FC Nordsjaelland to win”. Second comes “Odense to win” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for FC Nordsjaelland, 1.34 for Odense.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 567 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Nordsjaelland to win52.3%

Draw23.4%

Odense to win24.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

2	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Nordsjaelland lead at half-time54.3%

Level at half-time31.8%

Odense lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Nordsjaelland ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time68.2%

X2 — level or Odense ahead45.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 567 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 9Actual: 2
Odense: at least 11Actual: 5

Corners

FC Nordsjaelland: at least 4
Odense: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Nordsjaelland score1.99

Attack: FC Nordsjaelland score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Odense's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Odense score1.34

Attack: Odense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Nordsjaelland's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.7%2–110.5%2–27.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.