Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 13

FC Copenhagen–Viborg

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Copenhagen		Viborg
22	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
591	Passes	444
521	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Copenhagen 2.44 · Viborg 0.97. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots FC Copenhagen 22 · Viborg 7; on target 3 and 3.
FC Copenhagen kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Kristoffersen→

3.45

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.4%: “FC Copenhagen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.44 for FC Copenhagen, 0.97 for Viborg.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw).
These values were computed from 562 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Copenhagen to win70.4%

Draw18.0%

Viborg to win11.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,522 of 6,222 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen win or draw88.3%

12 — any result other than a draw82.0%

X2 — draw or Viborg win29.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Copenhagen lead at half-time50.0%

Level at half-time34.6%

Viborg lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Copenhagen ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time65.4%

X2 — level or Viborg ahead50.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 562 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Copenhagen: at least 11Actual: 12
Viborg: at least 9Actual: 8

Corners

FC Copenhagen: at least 5Actual: 6
Viborg: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals67.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Copenhagen score2.44

Attack: FC Copenhagen score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Viborg's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Viborg score0.97

Attack: Viborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Copenhagen concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.5%2–010.0%1–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 562 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 88 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.