Superliga · Denmark · Regular Season - 13

Randers FC–Sonderjyske

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Cepheus Park, Randers

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Randers FC		Sonderjyske
8	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
592	Passes	535
514	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Randers FC 1.91 · Sonderjyske 1.21. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Randers FC 8 · Sonderjyske 8; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

S. Rasmussen→

3.69

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Randers FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Randers FC, 1.21 for Sonderjyske.
The highest double chance value is 77.6% (1X — Randers FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Randers FC to win53.7%

Draw23.9%

Sonderjyske to win22.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,215 of 3,677 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Randers FC win or draw77.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Sonderjyske win46.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Randers FC lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time37.3%

Sonderjyske lead at half-time22.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Randers FC ahead or level77.5%

12 — not level at half-time62.7%

X2 — level or Sonderjyske ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Randers FC: at least 10Actual: 5
Sonderjyske: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Randers FC: at least 5Actual: 4
Sonderjyske: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Randers FC score1.91

Attack: Randers FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sonderjyske's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sonderjyske score1.21

Attack: Sonderjyske score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Randers FC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.8%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 561 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 34 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.